Pam Marron Home Lending

Morning Briefing: HELOC owners face sharp payment increases in 2017

May 2, 2017 by · Leave a Comment 

by Steve Randall
Challenging times are ahead for thousands of homeowners with HELOCs as their lines of credit reset with higher monthly payments while some may struggle to refinance.Analysis by Black Knight Financial shows that 1.5 million HELOCs will see interest-only draw periods end this year with just under $100 billion in outstanding unpaid principal balances; an average of $62,500 per HELOC.

The data reveals that average borrowers whose lines of credit reset will face an additional cost of $250 per month, more than double the current average payment.

“In 2017, 19 percent of active HELOCs are facing reset,” said Ben Graboske, Black Knight Data & Analytics EVP. “This is the largest share of active HELOCs facing reset of any single year on record, although the approximate 1.5 million borrowers slated to see their HELOC payments increase this year is about 100,000 fewer borrowers than in 2016.”

Graboske explained that the lines resetting this year and early in 2018 are the last of the pre-crisis-era HELOCs that the industry has been focusing on since early 2014.

A third of those with HELOCs resetting this year will find refinancing challenging as they have less than 20 per cent equity in their homes. A fifth have less than 10 per cent and 1 in 10 are underwater.

While that is a concern, it reveals a large improvement from 2016 when 45 per cent of HELOC owners were below 20 per cent and a fifth were underwater.

For most borrowers though, recent conditions have enabled them to avoid the addition monthly cost of a reset.

“One thing that’s working in the 2007 vintage HELOCs’ favor has been the equity and interest rate environment of the last year. Rising home prices and low interest rates throughout 2016 have allowed borrowers to be much more proactive than in years past in terms of paying off or refinancing their lines to avoid increased monthly payments,” Graboske explained.

*originally published on Mortgage Professional America’s website.

Loan Delinquency Rate Up, Potential Home Sales Improve

August 23, 2016 by · Leave a Comment 

by Phil Hall, August 22, 2016 as published on National Mortgage Professional Magazine

The week is getting off to a bit of a decent start, at least in terms of the latest housing market data.

Black Knight Financial Services’ “first look” at July’s mortgage environment has determined that the U.S. home loan delinquency rate rose 4.78 percent from June, although it is down 3.38 percent from July 2015. There were more solid numbers regarding foreclosure starts—61,300 in July, down 11.54 percent from June and down 14.27 percent from a year ago—and on the total pre-sale foreclosure inventory—1.09 percent, down 1.68 percent from the previous month and down a significant 28.36 percent from one year earlier.

However, the number of properties that are 30 or more days past due but not in foreclosure reached nearly 2.3 million, up 108,000 from June but down 70,000 from July 2015.

Separately, First American Financial Corp.’s proprietary Potential Home Sales model determined that the market for existing-home sales underperformed its potential in July by 1.3 percent or an estimated 92,000 seasonally adjusted, annualized rate (SAAR) of sales. This an improvement over June’s revised under-performance gap of 1.8 percent, or 104,000 (SAAR) sales. First American also reported that the market potential for existing-home sales grew last month by 0.15 percent compared to June, an increase of 8,000 (SAAR) sales, and increased by 5.4 percent compared to a year ago.

However, Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American, noted that a thorny problem that has bedeviled the housing recovery is showing no signs of abating.

“Low inventories still remain an issue, dropping to a 4.6-month supply, down from the 4.7-month supply seen in April and May, and from the 4.9-month supply of June 2015,” he said. “The constrained supply in this sellers’ market continues to frustrate potential homebuyers and adds further upward pressure to nominal home prices, which rose an estimated five percent year-over-year in May, according to the Case-Shiller House Price Index.”

Better Details Needed for FHA Back to Work, Conv “Extenuating Circumstances”

May 6, 2015 by · Leave a Comment 

Better Details Needed for FHA Back to Work Program and Conventional “Extenuating Circumstances”

 

By Pam Marron

For past short sellers who have gone through the loss of a home and are eligible to return, criteria needed for a new mortgage is vague. The result is a partial story.

Proving “extenuating circumstances” and confining the timeline for an economic event is a struggle for loan originators and underwriters trying to comply with vague criteria. Because of so many variables, lenders deny new loans for borrowers with a short sale or foreclosure in their past even when they may be eligible to repurchase again.

We HAVE to get this right. Detailing WHY the loss of a home is the hardest thing for affected consumers to provide… not because they can’t remember, but because they relive it.

In attempting to originate the FHA “Back to Work” loans, it would seem the process is simple. The criteria for “Back to Work” is to show a 20% reduction in income sustained for 6 months minimum that resulted from a loss of employment or reduction in income, which is considered the “economic event”.

Here’s the bigger problem. Most who had an “economic event” tried to hang on, wiping out assets along the way. But, while trying to hang on, homeowners accumulated more debt to stay solvent and in most cases, to stay current on their mortgage. Then, another “economic event” hit, assets were gone and debt is so excessive that there is no choice but to short sell.

As a mortgage broker in Florida where it is common to see Boomerang Buyers (those eligible to re-enter the housing market after a short sale or foreclosure), I often hear the full story for those who have lost a home and want to re-try home ownership again. An economic event followed by a prolonged period of trying to stay put, finally ended with another event where funds were no longer available and the only choice was to short sale, occurred in a great deal of these cases.

Proof also exists to show a good number of these folks had excessive debt that pushed up debt to income ratios incredibly high prior to the sale of their underwater home.

But, it gets confusing for a new mortgage. For the FHA “Back to Work” program, HUD approved counselors are able to determine hardship and can provide those who attempt a re-purchase one year after a short sale, foreclosure or bankruptcy with a housing counseling certificate.

However, that doesn’t mean the mortgage company will approve the mortgage. Because the economic event may have occurred years ago and short sale processes took months or years, documentation such as tax returns and bank statements needed to show a lack of assets may stretch over the previous five to seven years rather than the most recent two years that lenders are accustomed to evaluating.

Mortgage companies who offer FHA “Back to Work” are reluctant to promote this almost two year old program due to few of these loans getting approved. Part of this is because loan originators don’t provide enough documentation, and the other problem is that there seems to be wide discrepancy between underwriting opinion on these files.

Varying opinion also exists for “extenuating circumstances” noted in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guidelines for eligibility of a new mortgage under four years. Underwriting interpretation of these guidelines vary greatly from lender to lender for the few mortgage companies who offer these loans.

For loans submitted with what seems to be an iron clad “extenuating circumstance” or proof of the 20% reduction in income for 6 months minimum for FHA’s “Back to Work” program, underwriter opinion seems to vary widely. Some underwriters think the decision to short sale was too soon, while others wonder why homeowners waited. It seems they are trying to justify the sale was “not strategic”.

The income, current credit and assets of borrowers who have gone through a short sale and are trying to re-enter the housing market is more than acceptable per current guidelines. They have to be next to perfect, and they know it. Other than knowledge of the past short sale, these are loans that any lender would want to have on their books.

Those who make policy need to talk directly with affected past short sellers. They need to come to where underwater home problems still exist and see for themselves what is really happening. This can truly help the housing industry recover.

 

 

 

 

Video: Past Short Sellers Can Be Homeowners Again!

October 16, 2013 by · Leave a Comment 

The fix is in!

 

Video: Past Short Sellers Can Be Homeowners Again!

George Albright, like many past short sellers, had a problem when he was eligible to repurchase a home. His past short sale credit was showing up as a foreclosure. George made this video to explain how he was able to get his credit corrected and buy a new home again. How many past short sellers, or those who may have to short sell, can this help? Simple instructions for past short sellers, realtors and lenders!

Click on picture above or go to http://youtu.be/ZPvzVpnwKRI

National Consumer Reporting Assoc.(NCRA)…Could Not Have Done This Without Them!

September 6, 2013 by · Leave a Comment 

NCRA 8.23.13

Negative Equity Declines in 2Q13, but Trouble Looms for Many Homeowners

August 29, 2013 by · Leave a Comment 

By Evan Nemeroff  AUG 29, 2013 12:40pm ET

With home values rising over the last several months, the national negative equity rate is falling. But for millions of homeowners, it could take years for them to regain equity, Zillow said.

Approximately 12.2 million homeowners with a mortgage were in negative equity at the end of the second quarter, the Seattle-based real estate information provider said in a report. This figure is down from 13 million homeowners in 1Q13 and 15.3 million a year ago.

Even if home prices go up by 4.8% in the next year, it would take a homeowner who is 20% underwater about four years to reach positive equity, assuming appreciation continues at that rate going forward.

“Widespread rising home values during the past year have helped chip away at negative equity nationwide, helping many homeowners who were only modestly underwater to come up for air. For those homeowners who are deeply underwater, though, there is still a long row to hoe,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow.

Overall, the negative equity rate for all homeowners with a mortgage is 23.8%. More than half (57%) of homeowners in negative equity are underwater by at least 20%. Furthermore, 13.4% of underwater borrowers owe more than twice what their properties are worth.

Among the 30 largest metropolitans areas covered by Zillow that have the highest percentage of mortgaged homeowners with negative equity in the second quarter are Las Vegas (48.4%), Atlanta (44%) and Orlando (39.8%).

Over the next year, Zillow is forecasting that the negative equity rate for homeowners with a mortgage will fall to at least 20.9%, which will help free 1.9 million borrowers from being underwater. The majority of these homeowners, Zillow said, that will fall into positive equity are anticipated to come from Los Angeles, Riverside, Calif., and Atlanta.

“The frustrating slow pace of negative equity declines in the face of such robust home value appreciation is a direct result of the fact that many people in the hardest-hit markets are underwater by an enormous amount,” Humphries stated. “Because of this, negative equity will be a factor in these markets for years to come, constraining the supply of homes for sale and keeping people out of the market who might otherwise get involved.”

 

 

 

Top Five Market Factors That Influence Mortgage Rates

March 28, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

Timing the market for the best possible opportunity to lock a mortgage rate on a new loan is certainly a challenge, even for the professionals.

While there are several generic interest rate trend indicators online, the difference between what’s advertised and actually attainable can be influenced at any given moment by at least 50 different variables in the market, and with each individual loan approval scenario.

Outside of the borrower’s control, the mortgage rate marketplace is a dynamic, volatile, living and breathing animal.

Lenders set their rates every day based on the market activities of Mortgage Bonds, also known as Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS).

On volatile days, a lender might adjust their pricing anywhere from one to five times, depending on what’s taking place in the market.

Factors That Influence Mortgage Backed Securities:

1.  Inflation –

According to Wikipedia:

In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When the price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, annual inflation is also an erosion in the purchasing power of money – a loss of real value in the internal medium of exchange and unit of account in the economy.

A chief measure of price inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index (normally the Consumer Price Index) over time.

As inflation increases, or as the expectation of future inflation increases, rates will push higher.

The contrary is also true; when inflation declines, rates decrease.

Famous economist Milton Friedman said “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”

Public enemy #1 of all fixed income investments, inflation and the expectation of future inflation is a key indicator of how much investors will pay for mortgage bonds, and therefore how high or low current mortgage rates will be in the open market.

When an investor buys a bond, they receive a fixed percentage of the value of that bond as ‘coupon’ payments.

With MBS, an investor might buy a bond that pays 5%, which means for every $100 invested, they receive $5 in interest per year, usually divided up over 12 payments. For the buyer of a mortgage bond, that $5 coupon payment is worth more in the first year, because it can buy more today than it can in the future, due to inflation. When the markets read signals of increasing inflation, it tells bond investors that their future coupon payments will be less valuable by the time they receive them. So basically, this causes investors to demand higher rates for any new bonds they invest in.

2. The Federal Reserve

As part of its 2008-2010 stimulus effort, the NY Fed spent almost all of its $1.25 trillion budget buying mortgage bonds. Many believe this strategy kept mortgage rates lower over a 15 month period.

The lending environment significantly changed between 2008, when the Fed began its mortgage bond purchasing program, and early 2010 when the market was left to survive on its own.

When the MBS purchase program was announced in November 2008, mortgage bonds reacted immediately and dramatically.

But at that time, there weren’t any investors willing to take a risk in buying mortgage bonds. The meltdown in the mortgage market and world economies lead many investors to shy away from the risks associated with MBS, which is why the Fed had to step in and basically assume the role as the sole investor of mortgage bonds.

However, loan underwriting guidelines drastically tightened up by 2010, which may create a little more confidence in the mortgage bond market.

3. Unemployment –

Decreasing unemployment will suggest that mortgage rates will rise.

Typically, higher unemployment levels tend to result in lower inflation, which makes bonds safer and permits higher bond prices. For example, the unemployment rate in March 2010 was at 9.7%, just slightly below its highest mark in the current economic cycle.

Every month, the BLS releases the Nonfarm Payrolls (aka The Jobs Report) which tallies the number of jobs created or lost in the preceding month.

The previous report indicated a loss of 36,000 jobs. Not necessarily a number that will move the needle on the unemployment gauge, but some economists suggest we need about 125,000 new jobs each month just to keep pace with population growth. So that negative 36,000 is more like negative 161,000 jobs short of an improving unemployment picture.

One flaw to pay attention to with unemployment rates is that the method of surveying fails to capture part-time workers who desire full-time employment, discouraged job seekers who have taken time off from searching and other would-be workers who are not considered to be part of the labor force.

4. GDP –

GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, is a measure of the economic output of the country.

High levels of GDP growth may signal increasing mortgage rates.

The Federal Reserve slashes short-term rates when GDP slows to encourage people and businesses to borrow money. When GDP gets too hot, there might be too much money floating around, and inflation usually picks up. So high GDP ratings warn the market that interest rates will rise to keep inflation concerns in balance.

Spiking GDP with flat/increasing unemployment begs some questions.

There are two major indicators that help provide more context:

1. Increases to worker productivity – employers are getting more work out of their current employees to avoid hiring new ones

2. Surges in inventory cycles – when the economy first started contracting, manufacturing slowed down to cut costs, and sales were made by liquidating inventory.

This is like a roller coaster cresting a hill, where one part of the train is going up, the other down. Eventually, the other side catches up, inventories are rebuilt by manufacturing more than is being sold. Both surges can throw off periodic reports of GDP.

5. Geopolitics –

Unforeseen events related to global conflict, political events, and natural disasters will tend to lower mortgage rates.

Anything that the markets didn’t see coming causes uncertainty and panic. And when markets panic, money generally moves to stable investments (bonds), which brings rates lower. Mortgage bonds pick up some of that momentum.

Acts of terrorism, tsunamis, earthquakes, and recent sovereign debt crises (Dubai, Greece) are all examples.

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Putting It All Together:

Economic data is reported daily, and some items have a greater tendency to be of concern to the market for mortgage rates. If you are involved in a real estate financing transaction, it’s helpful to be aware of these influences, or to rely upon the advice of a mortgage professional who is already dialed in.

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What's The Difference Between Interest Rate and Annual Percentage Rate (APR)?

March 28, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

The difference between APR and actual note rate is very confusing, especially for First-Time Home Buyers who haven’t been through the entire closing process before.

When shopping for a new mortgage loan, you may notice an Annual Percentage Rate (APR) advertised next to the note rate.  The inclusion of an APR is actually mandated by federal law in order to help give borrowers a standard rule of measurement for comparing the total cost of each loan.

The APR is designed to represent the “true cost of a loan” to the borrower, expressed in the form of a yearly rate to prevent lenders from “hiding” fees and up-front costs behind low advertised rates.

According to Wikipedia:

The terms annual percentage of rate (APR) and nominal APR describe the interest rate for a whole year (annualized), rather than just a monthly fee/rate, as applied on a loan, mortgage, credit card, etc. It is a finance charge expressed as an annual rate. 

  • The nominal APR is the simple-interest rate (for a year).
  • The effective APR is the fee+compound interest rate (calculated across a year)

The nominal APR is calculated as: the rate, for a payment period, multiplied by the number of payment periods in a year.

However, the exact legal definition of “effective APR” can vary greatly, depending on the type of fees included, such as participation fees, loan origination fees, monthly service charges, or late fees.

The effective APR has been called the “mathematically-true” interest rate for each year. The computation for the effective APR, as the fee+compound interest rate, can also vary depending on whether the up-front fees, such as origination or participation fees, are added to the entire amount, or treated as a short-term loan due in the first payment.

What Fees Are Typically Included In APR?

  • Origination Fee
  • Discount Points
  • Buydown funds from the buyer
  • Prepaid Mortgage Interest
  • Mortgage Insurance Premiums
  • Other lender fees (application, underwriting, tax service, etc.)

Since origination fees, discount points, mortgage insurance premiums, prepaid interest and other items may also be required to obtain a mortgage, they need to be included when calculating the APR. Fees such as title insurance, appraisal and credit are not included in calculating the APR.

The APR can vary between lenders and programs due to the fact that the federal law does not clearly define specifically what goes into the calculation.

What Does APR Not Disclose?

  • APR on a loan tied to a market index, like a 5/1 ARM, assumes the market index will never change.  But Adjustable Rate Mortgages always change over the course of 30 years.
  • Balloon Payments
  • Prepayment Penalties
  • Length of Rate Lock
  • Comparison between loan terms – EX:  A 15-year term will have a higher APR simply because the fees are amortized over a shorter period of time compared to a similar rate / cost scenario on a 30-year term.

APR Comparing Examples:

  • Bank (A) is offering a 30 year fixed mortgage at 8.00% APR
  • Bank (B) is offering a 30 year fixed mortgage at 7.00% Note Rate

Easy choice, right?

While Bank (B) is advertising the lowest Note Rate, they’re not factoring in the origination points, underwriting / processing fees and prepaid mortgage interest (first month’s mortgage payment), which could essentially make the APR much higher than the one Bank (A) is advertising. So Bank (A) may show a higher rate due to the APR, but they could actually be charging a lot less in total fees than Bank (B).

…..

Before lenders and mortgage brokers were required to state the APR, it was more difficult to find the truth about the total borrowing costs of one loan vs another. When comparing mortgage rates, it’s a good idea to ask your lender which fees are included in their APR quote.

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How Are Mortgage Rates Determined?

March 28, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

Many people believe that interest rates are simply set by lenders, but the reality is that mortgage rates are largely determined by what is known as the Secondary Market.

The secondary market is comprised of investors who buy the loans made by banks, brokers, lenders, etc. and then either hold them for their earnings, or bundle them and sell them to other investors. When the secondary market sells the bundles of mortgages, there are end investors who are willing to pay a certain price for those loans.

That market price of those Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) is what impacts mortgage rates.

Typically, investors are willing to accept a lower return on mortgage backed securities because of their relative safety compared to other investments.

This perception of safety is due to the implied government backing of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the fact that the Mortgage Backed investments are based on real estate collateral. So, if the loan defaults there is real property pledged against potential losses.

In contrast, other investments are considered more risky, specifically stocks which are based on earnings and profit vs real property.  The movement between the two investment vehicles often dictates mortgage rates.

Why Do Mortgage Rates Change?

Mortgage rates fluctuate based on the market’s perception of the economy.

Stocks are considered riskier investments, and therefore have an expected higher rate of return to compensate for that risk. When the economy is thriving, it is presumed that companies will perform better, and therefore their stock prices will move higher. When stock prices move higher – MBS prices generally move lower.  Mortgage Backed Securities, however, thrive when the economy is perceived as not doing well. When investors forecast a faltering economy, they worry that the return on stocks will be lower, so they frequently engage in a ‘flight to safety’ and buy more secure investments such as Mortgage Backed Securities.  Mortgage rates are actually based on the yield of those Mortgage Backed Securities.

Bonds are sold at a particular price based on their value in relation to other available investments.  When a bond is sold it yields a certain return based on that original purchase price.  As the prices of the MBS increases because investors seek their safety, the yield decreases. Conversely, when investors seek the higher returns of stocks and the MBS are purchased in lesser quantities the price goes down.  The lower price results in a higher yield, and this yield is what determines mortgage rates.

How Would I Know if Rates are Expected to Go Up or Down?

UP:

When the economy is growing or is expected to grow, stocks will likely become the more favored investment.

When investors buy more stocks, they purchase fewer MBS, which drives the price down.

When the price of the MBS is lower, the yield increases.

Since mortgage rates are based on the yield of the 30 Year MBS, you would expect rates to increase in this environment.

DOWN:

When the economy appears to be slowing or is doing poorly, investors typically move their money out of the stock market and into the safety of the MBS.

This drives the price of these investments higher, which results in a lower yield.

Since mortgage rates are based on the yield of the 30 Year MBS, you would expect rates to decrease in this environment.

Since these market variables and expectations change multiple times as economic reports are released throughout the course of a week, it is not uncommon to see mortgage rates change several times a day.

Understanding how rates move is not necessarily as important as having a loan officer that is equipped with the technology and professional services to track and stay alerted at the precise moment rates make a move for the better or worse.

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How Do Mortgage Rates Move When The Fed Lowers Rates?

March 28, 2010 by · Leave a Comment 

Lower mortgage rates is a common misconception that is perpetuated by the mainstream media when the Fed makes an announcement of lowering rates.

However, when the Fed cuts interest rates, mortgage rates can actually increase.

Fed 101:

According to Wikipedia:

The Federal Reserve System (also known as the Federal Reserve, and informally as the Fed) is the central banking system of the United States.

This system was conceived by several of the world’s leading bankers in 1910 and enacted in 1913, with the passing of the Federal Reserve Act. The passing of the Federal Reserve Act was largely a response to prior financial panics and bank runs, the most severe of which being the Panic of 1907.

Over time, the roles and responsibilities of the Federal Reserve System have expanded and its structure has evolved. Events such as the Great Depression were some of the major factors leading to changes in the system.

Its duties today, according to official Federal Reserve documentation, fall into four general areas:

  1. Conducting the nation’s monetary policy by influencing monetary and credit conditions in the economy in pursuit of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.
  2. Supervising and regulating banking institutions to ensure the safety and soundness of the nation’s banking and financial system, and protect the credit rights of consumers.
  3. Maintaining stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk that may arise in financial markets.

The Federal Reserve controls two key interest rates in this country:

1) The Federal Funds Rate

2) The Discount Rate

These are overnight lending rates used by banks when they lend money to each other.

When these rates are low, money is cheaper for banks to borrow, and that “cheap” money spreads throughout the economy.

The aim of the Federal Reserve in its interest rate policy is to either speed up or slow down the economy. In times of economic downturn, the Federal Reserve will cut rates to help create a boost. Conversely, in times of heavy inflation, the Fed will raise rates to help slow down the economy.

That’s it; speed up or slow down….no tricks.

When the credit crisis began to spiral in 2007, the Fed cut rates dramatically in hopes of jump-starting the economy. The Fed keeping rates near zero is an indication that the economy is moving along at a steady pace. If the economy improves to the point where inflation starts to creep up the Fed will begin hiking rates.

The Fed and Mortgage Rates:

Mortgage rates are tied to mortgage bonds, which are traded every day on the secondary market just like stocks.

Bonds are often considered a safer investment than stocks since they yield a constant rate of return.

During times of market turmoil, investors sell their stock holdings and move into bonds (called a “flight to safety” in financial jargon).

Conversely, when the economy is booming, investors move their money away from bonds and into stocks to take advantage of the upswing in the economy.

Remember, The Fed cuts interest rates to boost the economy.

When investors see this boost, they sell their bond holdings and move into stocks.

This movement causes the rates on those bonds to increase naturally as the bonds have to attract new investors with higher rates of return.

As a result, we see mortgage rates increase.

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So, the next time you hear the Fed cutting interest rates, don’t assume mortgage rates will simply follow suit. The rate cut is simply meant to boost the economy, which moves money from bonds to stocks, and causes mortgage rates to rise.

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